With the start of a new year, questions arise about the trends that will shape the direction of business and society in general. After a 2025 of rapid technological evolution, global tensions, and economic readjustments, decision-makers face a complex landscape. Below, we present four predictions for 2026.
1. Artificial intelligence comes out of the speculative bubble
We have been witnessing an omnipresence of artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 3 years, which many today compare to the “dot-com” bubble of the late 90s. While large tech companies reported real profits thanks to AI, many traditional organizations have invested substantial sums without seeing tangible returns. In fact, it is estimated that, at best, 9 out of 10 generative AI pilot projects in companies have not achieved significant financial results, remaining stagnant with no impact on their revenues. The gap between the hype and reality is becoming increasingly evident: numerous companies find it difficult to bring AI pilots to production, and the initial enthusiasm gives way to doubts about their practical value and return on investment.
We hope that by 2026 companies will adopt a more cautious and pragmatic stance towards AI. Instead of treating AI as a magic wand for all their problems, they will integrate it as another gear within their strategies, seeking concrete applications that improve productivity and profitability. This moderation will be driven by lessons learned: successful AI projects have been those focused on specific and well-defined use cases, not on generic and costly solutions. At the same time, investors are beginning to show evident concern about the potential burst of the technology bubble surrounding AI, which tops the list of risks for this year.
It is likely, therefore, that we will see a correction in the overheated AI market in the second half of the year. This would particularly affect providers of large public-use language models (LLMs) and inflated startups that rely on abundant funding. Companies are less willing to pay for huge, generalist AI platforms; they prefer more focused and cost-effective tools that address their specific needs. In AI, this is the year we will move from frenzy to phronesis.
2. Cybersecurity on high alert due to global tensions
Cybersecurity will be another critical issue this year, fueled by a global context marked by conflicts and geopolitical rivalries. In 2025, cyberattacks grew in scale and audacity, often as an extension of international tensions. By 2026, a substantial increase in state-sponsored cyberattacks or groups aligned with various political causes is anticipated, seeking to inflict the greatest possible reputational and economic damage on their targets. There will be no digital truce: according to experts, offensive activities by nation-backed hackers will remain at very high levels throughout 2026, reflecting the breakdown of diplomatic channels and active conflicts in various regions. In other words, geopolitical struggles are also being fought in cyberspace, and no organization, whether public or private, is completely safe from becoming a target or collateral damage.
We will see more attacks targeting critical infrastructure (financial systems, telecommunications, public services). Some actors seek to provoke systemic disruptions: aggressive attempts to take down vital systems such as logistics chains, which could cause cascading effects beyond the immediate targets.
In addition to state agents, "hacktivist" groups will intensify their activity in response to global events. Each new sanction, conflict, or controversial decision by a government could trigger waves of digital intrusions by cyber activists. Their goal will be to undermine public services, erode trust in institutions, and amplify the local impact of international crises. In 2025, we witnessed how collectives affiliated with various causes attacked government websites and strategic companies as a form of protest; this year that trend will escalate. For this reason, we believe that cybersecurity in 2026 will be on high alert. Organizations will need to strengthen their defenses, prepare for more sophisticated attacks (possibly enhanced by AI), and remain vigilant against constant threats. The convergence of state espionage, cyber warfare, and common cybercrime will create a risk environment in which prevention and resilience will be more important than ever.
3. Economic cooling with inflation relief
In economic terms, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of moderate growth, but without derailing into recession, a relief after the volatility of recent years. The global economy demonstrated resilience in 2025 despite various obstacles ranging from trade wars to armed conflicts; however, entering 2026, analysts project a slowdown in global GDP. Several factors contribute to this moderation: on one hand, a lower dynamism in international trade is expected, partly affected by new tariff barriers and tensions between major trading powers. On the other hand, household consumption in many countries will continue to be impacted by accumulated inflation and the lagging effects of recent high interest rates. In short, conditions remain fragile, and businesses will have to navigate a weaker demand environment.
Not everything is negative, as the worst part of the inflationary shock seems to be behind us, moving away from the extraordinary levels we saw in the post-Covid period. This would open the door for major central banks to consider more significant factors for a gradual and sustained reduction in interest rates, thus easing the cost of credit. It is unlikely that we will return to the near-zero interest rates of the past decade, as the era of practically free money is over; however, 2026 definitely points to slower but stable growth, with declining inflation that will allow for a less suffocating financial environment. Still, latent risks could cloud this outlook: trade and geopolitical tensions have not disappeared, which could lead to greater fragmentation of global supply chains and higher input costs, with this new trend of a world divided into blocs. Therefore, we must remain vigilant and agile, balancing caution with seizing opportunities in those sectors that still show strength.
4. Sustainability and climate as strategic business axes
If you ended the year hearing or experiencing firsthand that the monarch butterflies delayed their migration, that the poinsettias did not bloom in season, or that traditional places for winter sports went through December without continuous snowfall, it will not surprise you that the environment and sustainability are among the most important topics in 2026, marked by regulatory advances and growing public pressure to address climate change. This year could represent a turning point in the narrative of corporate sustainability, as new far-reaching regulations will begin to take effect, such as the European Union's Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), which will require thousands of companies to rigorously disclose their environmental, social, and governance impacts, or climate laws in states like California that will require companies to report their greenhouse gas emissions and climate risks. Sustainability is no longer just a marketing issue; it has become a strategic imperative: failing to meet environmental standards now not only leads to a bad image but also potential penalties and loss of market access.
All these trends shape an initial map of what 2026 could bring, a year that promises to be one of adjustments and definitions on our shared path toward the future. Of course, no prediction is infallible, and surprises can always arise, but anticipating scenarios allows us to act with vision and resilience in an increasingly interconnected and challenging world. As individuals or as part of our community, the challenge is interesting. Welcome.